EC – European Economic Forecast, Spring 2024

The EU economy showed signs of recovery at the beginning of 2024, with a growth rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations. The euro area also experienced growth after a mild recession. The Spring Forecast predicts GDP growth of 1.0% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area for 2024. Economic convergence within the EU is progressing, with most Member States expected to return to growth. Inflation is projected to decline over the forecast horizon, with HICP inflation expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 in the EU and from 5.4% to 2.5% in the euro area. Economic convergence for newer Member States is set to resume and continue at a sustained pace. This forecast includes downward revisions for both the EU and the euro area, especially for the current year.