Fidelity Solutions & Multi Asset – Schrödinger’s Tariffs

The main theme of the document concerns the global macroeconomic outlook for 2025, focusing on US tariff policy and its impact on the economy.

Key conclusions include a sharp increase in uncertainty in economic policy, increasing recession risks. Inflation in the US remains resilient, and the introduction of tariffs could exacerbate inflationary risks. Economic growth in Europe remains weak, but a fiscal turnaround in Germany is possible. Trade dynamics between the EU and the US and geopolitical issues are creating structural changes in the Western economic and defense alliance.