Helaba – Markets and Trends, 2024

Helaba Research & Advisory's annual outlook for 2024 is centered around the theme of football, as Germany will be hosting the European Championship that year. The connection between football and economics is highlighted, as both require long-term strategies and short-term tactics for success. The focus is on identifying and developing young talent (human capital) and fostering innovation in both the economy and football. Effective resource management is also crucial, whether it be in selecting the best players or optimizing workers, capital, and other resources. Infrastructure, both digital and transport, is deemed crucial for both a successful football team and a thriving economy. Incentive systems and reducing bureaucratic obstacles are important for attracting and retaining talented individuals. Diversification and adaptability are emphasized as essential factors for long-term success in both football and the economy. The ability to tactically adjust, effective communication, and coordination within a team are also highlighted. The annual outlook presents three scenarios: a negative one with a severe recession, a positive one with successful economic policy, and a baseline scenario with a focus on transition and new strategies. Central banks and geopolitics are identified as key players in the baseline scenario. The outlook also mentions the risks of protectionism, interventionist industrial policies, and excessive state intervention. A smarter transition game is recommended to address these challenges.