IMF – World Economic Outlook, July 2024

The July 2024 IMF World Economic Outlook projects global growth to remain at 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, with varying momentum across economies. Services price inflation is hindering progress on disinflation, complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have increased, possibly leading to higher interest rates. Global trade has been boosted by strong exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector. While many countries experienced upside growth surprises in the first quarter, the United States and Japan faced notable downside surprises. Europe showed signs of economic recovery, led by improvement in services activity, while China saw domestic consumption and temporary export surge drive growth. Despite narrowing output divergences and slowing global disinflation momentum, several countries remain cautious in easing monetary policy due to external risks. Global financial conditions remain accommodative, with some countries facing pressure on fiscal discipline due to rising yields. The policy mix should be carefully sequenced to achieve price stability and bolster diminished buffers to maintain growth amidst escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties.