UOB – Quarterly Global Outlook, 4Q 2025
Summary
The main theme is the economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, focusing on slowing economic growth and uncertainty.
Key takeaways include the expected decline of the US dollar due to a projected Fed rate cut in September, creating a lower interest rate environment. The gold forecast is raised to $4000 per ounce by the third quarter of 2026. The first half of 2025 showed stronger results than expected due to a temporary pause in US tariffs. Growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 due to new US tariffs, which may weaken demand for imports and private consumption in the US, negatively impacting economic growth in Asia.
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