SVB – Quarterly Economic Report, 3Q 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has kept the fed funds rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting, with expectations of only one rate cut for 2024. The labor market is showing early signs of softening, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.1% at the end of June from 3.8% at the end of March. While progress has been made towards the 2% inflation target, more data is needed to confirm the sustainability of the decline in inflation. Despite a solid labor market and GDP, there are indications of weakening from historically strong levels. Consumer sentiment remains cautious, with inflation and uncertainty about the labor market strength influencing consumer behavior. Overall, the economy is facing challenges as it navigates through changing economic conditions and uncertainties.